Japanese manufacturers' confidence index turned negative to the central bank's forecast in December. A short-term survey in Reuters, Japan, found that Japanese manufacturers' business confidence deteriorated further in December due to concerns about US protectionist policies. The survey of 505 large Japanese non-financial enterprises showed that manufacturers' confidence index fell from 5 in November to -1 in December, which was the first time since last February, and the number of pessimists exceeded optimists for the first time in 10 months. The loss of business confidence may cast a shadow over the Bank of Japan's forecast. The Bank of Japan had previously predicted that a steady recovery driven by rising wages and consumption would help inflation reach the 2% target in a sustainable way and justify further interest rate hikes. Many manufacturing industries have reported that business confidence has declined. Among electronic machinery manufacturers, steel and non-ferrous metal manufacturers, pessimists far exceed optimists.Details of the "Teze Meeting" exposed Trump's friendliness. Zelensky said that he wanted security. Two sources said that during his first meeting with Trump after the US election, Ukrainian President Zelensky emphasized that Ukraine needed security in any negotiations with Russia to end the conflict. French President Macron presided over the meeting in Paris. The three leaders talked for 35 minutes without a consultant, and did not discuss any specific details of the vision of peace, but four people familiar with the matter said that Trump reiterated his hope for an immediate ceasefire and a rapid end to the war through negotiations. One of the sources said that Trump was friendly, respectful and open, and seemed to be listening. A source said: "Some key points were mentioned during the meeting. For example, some people said that peace needs to be guaranteed, because a ceasefire alone is not enough. Putin may break the ceasefire again without proper guarantee as before." The source said that Trump "he is considering all the details." Several officials close to Trump said that Trump's direct contacts with Zelensky were generally cordial, which was different from some of his previous public statements, including calling Zelensky "the greatest salesman on earth" because he requested and accepted billions of dollars in US military assistance.Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zacharova: The Russian Federation keeps in touch with all political forces in Syria. The Russian Federation is holding an operational headquarters meeting to discuss the security of Russians and Russian facilities in Syria.
Lian Ping, president of the Chief Industry Research Institute of Guangkai, believes that it is expected to reduce the RRR by about 100 basis points in 2025, releasing more than 3 trillion yuan of liquidity. Among them, there is limited room for reducing the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and the expected RRR reduction is about 50 basis points.Monetary policy has turned to "moderate easing", and experts say that it is expected to make greater efforts to lower the RRR and cut interest rates. The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on December 9 changed the orientation of monetary policy from "steady" to "moderate easing" next year. Experts said that under the orientation of "moderate easing", the monetary policy space was further opened. In terms of total amount, it is more reasonable and sufficient to maintain liquidity; In terms of price, appropriately reducing the financing cost will better reflect the effectiveness of monetary policy. Next year, even greater RRR cuts and interest rate cuts can be expected. In addition to lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates, experts said that structural monetary policy tools, buying government bonds, open market buyout reverse repurchase and other operations are expected to continue to expand the scale, increase the frequency of use, and continuously enhance the effectiveness and pertinence of monetary policy. (CSI)Ministry of Finance of Korea: Korea's financial market is still facing uncertainty.
Lian Ping, president of the Chief Industry Research Institute of Guangkai, believes that it is expected to reduce the RRR by about 100 basis points in 2025, releasing more than 3 trillion yuan of liquidity. Among them, there is limited room for reducing the deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions, and the expected RRR reduction is about 50 basis points.CF40 Research: Three Channels to Expand Domestic Demand. An article published by Guan Wei of China Financial Forty Forum (CF40) pointed out that the expansion of total demand, whether it is to expand consumption or investment demand, should be implemented on credit growth. When credit goes up, residents, enterprises and governments have more money in their pockets, so do expenditures and incomes, as well as profits and investments. At present, there are three main ways to expand credit: first, fiscal policy is exerted and the government borrows money; Second, the monetary policy will exert its strength and reduce the policy interest rate; The third is to stabilize the real estate market, and there can be no further sharp decline. In terms of finance, maintain the intensity of fiscal expenditure in a broad sense, and moderately increase the fiscal deficit to 4% in 2025. In terms of monetary policy, we should take reducing the real interest rate as an important goal, continue to implement "strong interest rate reduction", and timely reduce the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools below the policy interest rate level. In terms of the property market, it will ease the current cash flow pressure faced by real estate enterprises and promote the real estate to stop falling and stabilize from both ends of supply and demand.Today, these stocks changed their main positions to increase electronic stocks and sell computer stocks, with a large amplitude.-Today, there are 22 stocks in A shares with an amplitude of more than 20%; -N Boyuan, Shenhao Technology, Panda Dairy and other stocks are among the top in amplitude; The turnover rate is high-today, there are 58 A-shares with a turnover rate of over 30%; -N Boyuan, Giant Wheel Intelligence, Tianyu Digital and other stocks have the highest turnover rate; Main funds-today, the main funds flowed into electronics, communications, real estate, non-ferrous metals, light industry manufacturing and other sectors, and flowed out of computers, machinery and equipment, non-bank finance, power equipment, automobiles and other sectors; -vision china, Jianghuai Automobile, Woer Nuclear Materials, Xinyisheng and Runxin Technology have the largest net inflows, with net inflows of 749 million yuan, 699 million yuan, 693 million yuan, 626 million yuan and 622 million yuan respectively; -Oriental Fortune, Shanzi Hi-Tech, Leo, Straight Flush, and Tianyue Mathematics have the largest net outflows, with net outflows of 2.295 billion yuan, 1.237 billion yuan, 1.131 billion yuan, 872 million yuan and 871 million yuan respectively.
Strategy guide 12-13
Strategy guide